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Crime

Reported Crime Rate in Shockoe Bottom Rose by 3% in 2019 Compared to 2018

The reported crime rate in Shockoe Bottom rose by 3% in 2019, compared to 2018, when using the data received from the Richmond Police Crime Incident Information Center. This percentage was calculated from the total of 806 reported crimes in 2019, compared to the total of 783 reported crimes the previous year. These crimes range from burglary and theft, to homicide.

This is compared to an 8% increase of crime rate, from 2017 and 2018, and a whopping 30% increase in crime rate from 2016 and 2017!

The 3 homicides in Shockoe Bottom include now-deceased Kenneth Lawson, a father of 5, who was killed this past Holiday morning in December of 2019.

Please see below for a breakdown of the crime rates, which also includes years previous to 2019! Keep in mind that this data is from reported crimes! Studies have shown that a large percentage of crimes DO NOT GO REPORTED, so these numbers may be different in reality!

Another issue that can cast doubt on the numbers shown here is that there may be the possibility of actual crimes going down, but the rate of crimes being reported are going up, which can lead to the false conclusion of crimes being on the rise. Despite these caveats, the information below is the best we have at the moment, until we can find better ways to better quantify crime.

The good news is, it seems that 2019 saw the least increase in crime rate over recent years!

While this data is relevant only to Shockoe Bottom, I’ll be more than happy to work on putting together some more statistics for the rest of the neighborhoods we cover in our community!

Credits for the featured image of the Main Street Station to Emory Minnick!

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20 comments

Paul Allen
Paul Allen 01/13/2020 at 9:38 PM

Democratic leadership has its costs…

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Michael Grabow
Michael Grabow 01/13/2020 at 10:21 PM

Paul I guess democratic leadership is also responsible for the 21% drop in citywide homicides from 2017 to 2018 then.

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Paul Allen
Paul Allen 01/13/2020 at 10:23 PM

Michael perhaps. But also that 26% tax increase since 2017.

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Paul Allen
Paul Allen 01/13/2020 at 10:24 PM

Michael what have Democrats ever done for this city? They’ve had control since the civil war!

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Michael Grabow
Michael Grabow 01/13/2020 at 10:29 PM

Paul Tell me more about this tax increase, I must have missed it somehow.

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Paul Allen
Paul Allen 01/13/2020 at 10:29 PM

Michael lord knows they haven’t improved our schools, fixed our roads, or created jobs.

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Paul Allen
Paul Allen 01/13/2020 at 10:30 PM

Michael look at citywide taxes since Levar took the reins.

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Paul Allen
Paul Allen 01/13/2020 at 10:31 PM

Michael you’re obviously not an Econ major.

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Michael Grabow
Michael Grabow 01/13/2020 at 10:32 PM

Paul why can’t you cite anything? You just referenced an awfully specific number. The real estate tax hasn’t moved.

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Michael Grabow
Michael Grabow 01/13/2020 at 10:33 PM

For someone who can post this many comments, you don’t have anything substantive to say.

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Nia McCabe Strei
Nia McCabe Strei 01/13/2020 at 11:39 PM

Michael omg look at the assessments!

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Rachel Woolwine Davis
Rachel Woolwine Davis 01/13/2020 at 10:35 PM

Get those crappy bars out of there.

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Justin Fritch
Justin Fritch 01/13/2020 at 11:40 PM

Compared to the improvements over the years, a 3% increase is not really worth talking about.

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Richard Borean
Richard Borean 01/14/2020 at 10:33 AM

This makes me wonder if something changed in 2014-2016 (perhaps from the reporting side) that would have lead to a sharp decrease in the number of crimes being filed as “other.”

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Kiet Vo
Kiet Vo 01/14/2020 at 11:43 AM

Hi Richard Borean, thank you for your contribution! I actually did wonder what “other” was defined as while I was doing my research for the article. I went ahead and sent a few questions to their media relations department and I’ll get back to you when and if they reply!

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herbert carlson 01/14/2020 at 4:30 PM

Number of crimes reported is not a crime rate, the raw number of crimes isn’t particularly relevant without population numbers. How many new apartments/ residents are added year over year? I would bet that the crime rate has dropped as we’ve been adding a couple hundred apartments every year the past couple years.

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Lee Thomas 01/14/2020 at 10:46 PM

Is there any indication that this might be due to better record keeping and an increase in reporting? Trying to find a silver lining here. I’ll look a little more closely at numbers before I comment further…

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Kiet Vo 01/15/2020 at 11:53 AM

Hey Herbert and Lee, you’re both correct and I agree 100% with your comments. There’s also been some discussion on the CHPN Facebook post regarding just how much these statistics can be trusted. I also did some research and found myself that your concerns are valid and true. I should have taken more care when I displayed the data I found and also relaying that although there are numbers, there are a lot of variables outside of those numbers that may mislead people into thinking crime is actually increasing, instead of possibly better record keeping and more crimes actually being reported. Here’s a link I found that also agrees with your concerns: http://theconversation.com/why-the-us-needs-better-crime-reporting-statistics-104731

Once I have done a bit more research, I’m planning on revising this article a bit to display these caveats, and being much more careful in the future when I release data-driven articles such as these. A similar article that will deal with the Church Hill area is in the pipeline, and while I still plan on using the same type of data (REPORTED crime), I’ll be sure to include these caveats for readers. This data is the best we have so far to measure crime in our communities, but hopefully the big brains out there will find more reliable ways to measure crime!

Thank you for your comments. It’s readers like you who keeps authors on our toes and holds us accountable for releasing accurate and reliable articles to the community! I hope to see more comments from you that add to the discussion surrounding our neighborhoods!

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Lee Thomas 01/15/2020 at 4:12 PM

Just a follow up (@Kiet Vo) – any idea where we might be able to get population data for the same area? I looked, but couldn’t find good yearly estimates and also had issues with different sources using different neighborhood boundaries. That would make it possible to calculate an approximate crime rate. However, it’s also worth noting that residential population may not be the best basis for calculating the crime rate because of all the businesses, public spaces, and what I would assume is a higher transient population ( i.e. people shopping/dining/parking and walking to MCV/Whatever that don’t actually live in the neighborhood). I don’t know that that sort of data even exists, though

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Kiet Vo 01/15/2020 at 8:53 PM

Lee, I thought the US Census website would have the info we need but it looks like they don’t drill down to the neighborhood level, unfortunately. I also reached out to the RPD and ask about where they draw the line for neighborhoods, parameters they use for their database, etc, but they haven’t replied. For now I’ll revise the article and make some disclaimers to clear up some of the misleading info.

Thank you!

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