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Government

Local voting (2014 vs 2013 vs 2012)

With this being such a close contest, I thought it might be interesting to compare local election numbers from this year’s election and last year’s election. Both years offered a competitive state-wide contest with the same somewhat viable 3rd party candidate. I’ve also included the 2012 presidential election numbers as a further comparison.

  • In the 2014 election for U.S. Senator, there were 942 fewer votes cast in Richmond precincts 701-708 than in the 2013 gubernatorial election (4,691 vs 5,633). In the 2012 presidential election there were 9,909 votes cast.
  • The only Democrat in the South to win a statewide contest this past Tuesday, Warner bested Gillespie by about only 17,000 votes out of more than 2,000,000 cast.
  • In this year’s closer race, statewide Warner garnered more votes than McAuliffe did in 2013 in his 2.5% victory over Ken Cuccinelli: McAuliffe received 1,069,789 votes, with Warner at 1,071,049.
  • Locally, McAuliffe (4,731 83.9%) pulled both higher vote totals and percentages than Warner (4,105 87.5%).
  • Turnout was lower in every precinct in the East End.
  • Warner picked up 626 fewer votes here than McAuliffe in 2013; Gillespie ran 78 behind Cuccinelli; Sarvis ’14 lost 238 votes from Sarvis ’13.
  • Gillespie received 78 less votes than Cuccinelli, but due to the locally lower turnout this translates into a .1 % gain from 2013.
  • Last year’s Sarvis totally stomped this year’s Sarvis: he picked up only 177 votes in the area in 2014, down from 415 in 2013. His percentage of the total vote dropped from 7.3% to 3.7%.
  • Warner picked up 143 fewer votes than McAuliffe in precinct 701 (Fairfield/Creighton), almost a quarter of his “lost” votes. He ran almost 1,000 votes behind Obama’s 2012 count in that precinct.
  • Gillespie did worse (by %) than Cuccinelli in precincts 703 (Oakwood) and 706 (Fulton).
  • Y’all see all them Republicans over there in 708 (Shockoe/Tobacco Row)?
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Election results 2014

Screen Shot 2014-11-10 at 8.09.54 AM Data from Virginia SBE [sep]

Election results 2013

Screen Shot 2014-11-10 at 8.07.53 AM Data from CHPN [sep]

Election results 2012

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 7.47.49 AM Data from Richmond Registrar [sep] precicnts richmond election

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7 comments

Kristen 11/10/2014 at 5:29 PM

This is really interesting. Thanks for doing this John. Any idea what percentage of registered voters and eligible voters are voting? And how that compares to the last Presidential elections? It seems like the turnout these past two years was much, much lower than in 2012.

Reply
ann 11/11/2014 at 7:05 AM

You put a lot of work into this. Thanks.

Reply
John M 11/11/2014 at 7:54 AM

@Kristen – good idea. I’ve added the 2012 data to the mix.

Reply
Bill conkle 11/12/2014 at 9:31 AM

I would have predicted a stronger shift to the right. Great information for the neighborhood. Thanks.

Reply

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