As the area’s homicide rate has dropped in recent years, a persistant question has been how much this drop is an accurate representation of the level of violence in the area. Towards getting a more clear picture of what is going, I’ve compiled the stats on assaults, shootings, and homicides for Sector 111 and Sector 113 going back to the year 2000.
Sector 111 is the area south of Nine Mile and Carrington, and includes Union Hill, Church Hill North, Chimborazo, St.John’s, and Fulton. Sector 113 is the area north of Nine Mile and Carrington, and includes Fairmount, Mosby, Whitcomb, Creighton, Fairfield, Brauers, and Woodville.
The numbers for 2012 are through August 27.
Before 2008, the combined sectors were averaging 1,234 assaults per year. For 2008-2011, they averaged 972. The highest count of assaults was in 2001, with 1330 assaults between both sectors. This year, 2012, is on track to be the lowest in the 12 year span, with a projected full-year count 869. The last 3 complete years have the lowest number of assaults during the span (2,896), a rate 75% that of the the 3 year span of 2000-2002 (3,894).
Before 2008, combined sectors averaged 68 shootings and 20 homicides per year. From 2008-2011, they averaged 39 shootings and 12 killings per year.
Assuming a connection between the number of shooting and the number of homicides, there are perhaps some tendencies to observe. Over the 12 year span, there has been on average about a 3 to 1 ratio of shootings to homicides. This year we are seeing an almost 12 to 1 ratio, an incredible number indicating that VCU or luck or both are keeping the homicide rate down. 2006 was the unluckiest year, with a 2 to 1 ratio.