August 20, 2008
Predicting the next mayor
On the heels of last week’s mayoral candidates debate, we ran a (certainly very unscientific) poll to see what kind of support each candidate might have…
The poll was up for a week, though the intent was to close it when there were more than 100 votes cast. The number jumped from 97 to 122 very quickly today and so here we are.
While the polling method is wildly flawed, there are definitely some takeaways and questions raised from this little experiment:
- The undecided vote is probably much higher than this.
- Lawrence Williams will not be our next mayor.
- A Jones-Grey runoff would not be surprising; a Grey-Goldman runoff would be entertaining…
It’ll be something to look back in 2 1/2 months and see how this stacks up to what really happens at the polls.
14 Responses to “Predicting the next mayor”
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I wish Robert Grey and Paul Goldman could team up. Goldman is by far the most qualified one running for Mayor. Robert Grey has the diplomatic ability, charisma and cash to win and possibly bring a sense of calm to City Hall. But, he dorely lacks specifics as to what he will actually DO.
Goldman, on the other hand seems to lack cash but not ideas. Goldman is a savvy guy with the strongest work ethic of the entire bunch. [Sorry guys .... but it is true. Who among you can offer a better resume, a resume filled with accomplishment?]
As I have gathered, both Grey and Goldman are running because they truly want to make the city a better place.
Whereas, given this city’s dismal experiences with preacher politicians [Lee Young, Gwen Hedgepeth], I confess that the Rev. Dwight Jones makes me nervous.
Worst of all, both Jones and Pantele appear to be running on the “Revenge Ticket.” Both seem to have a desire to “get even” with Doug Wilder. I can’t take much more of this “get-even” politricks of this city.
*sorely
Reachem, I couldn’t agree more with your analysis. Other than that, I think Goldman has always been the guy behind the scenes who got things done, and I wonder if he has the ability to actually be the leader, much less pull people together. I’d rather see Grey win, and hire Goldman as his right hand go-to person.
Slightly off subject – so far, no one here, to my knowledge, has noted that Grey is (I believe) the son of the former principle at Fox Elementary School, Barbara Grey. I don’t have kids, but I remember back when a LOT of folks up here wanted their kids to go to Fox, and it was Barbara Grey who made it have that good reputation back then. That doesn’t have much to do with my wanting him for mayor, just a comment. He’s the son of an exemplary elementary school principle.
We need a ranking poll like with IRV. We need IRV for Mayor and U.S. President.
Scott, how does IRV work? I googled it, and came up with Instant Runoff Voting. Please detail? Thanks.
Also, I can’t see how it would work for U.S. President unless you tinker with the electoral college – which, BTW, I am all for having done. But I defer to your obvious knowledge, and am curious, so will wait to read your details, thanks.
Which one of the candidate’s has the best plan for public education?
“Which one of the candidate’s has the best plan for public education?”
Most likely “dunno”.
LOL!
http://fairvote.org/?page=19
IRV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference (i.e. first, second, third, fourth and so on). Voters have the option to rank as many or as few candidates as they wish, but can vote without fear that ranking less favored candidates will harm the chances of their most preferred candidates. First choices are then tabulated, and if a candidate receives a majority of first choices, he or she is elected. If nobody has a clear majority of votes on the first count, a series of runoffs are simulated, using each voter’s preferences indicated on the ballot. The candidate who received the fewest first place choices is eliminated. All ballots are then retabulated, with each ballot counting as one vote for each voter’s highest ranked candidate who has not been eliminated. Specifically, voters who chose the now-eliminated candidate will now have their ballots counted for their second ranked candidate — just as if they were voting in a traditional two-round runoff election — but all other voters get to continue supporting their top candidate. The weakest candidates are successively eliminated and their voters’ ballots are redistributed to next choices until a candidate crosses a majority of votes.
Instant runoff voting allows for better voter choice and wider voter participation by accommodating multiple candidates in single seat races and assuring that a “spoiler effect” will not result in undemocratic outcomes. IRV allows all voters to vote for their favorite candidate without fear of helping elect their least favorite candidate, and it ensures that the winner enjoys true support from a majority of the voters. Plurality voting, as used in most American elections, does not meet these basic requirements for a fair election system that promotes cost-saving elections with wider participation.
I am sending Paul Goldman a campaign contribution today and I urge everyone to do so as well. WHY?
Paul is the only man in this race who did not engage in the back-and-forth-finger-pointing oneupsmanship bicker battle last night.
http://www.styleweekly.com/article.asp?idarticle=11903
He is the only one who has any substantive and strategic plans to bring Richmond forward.
http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/search.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-09-02-0135.html
He is the one who came up with the “City of the Future†idea to obtain money for us to fix our city and build and renovate our schools.
He’s also the only man who has pushed to make our schools ADA compliant without raising taxes or taking away any money that needs to be used to educate our children.
http://www.styleweekly.com/article.asp?idarticle=14753
Paul is the only man in this race who did not engage in PERSONAL ATTACKS during the back-and-forth-finger-pointing oneupsmanship bicker battle last night.
He did have the smartest comebacks, but he never hit below the belt.
I also believe that Paul is the only one who can unravel the madness and mess that Wilder has wrought upon City Hall and the schools.
I agree, Reachem. Enough with all the Revs in politics. The title only raises my suspicions.
I remember seeing Paul Goldman in front of Ukrops all by himself getting petition signatures before Wilder was elected. He seemed like a person working in earnest, and didn’t mind doing it all alone if he had to. Getting fired by Wilder (or whatever happened) only improves his image.
And as for that Pantele fellow, he seems like such a slime ball that I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of his 18 votes came from members of his campaign.
Pantele is the worst! He is a blowhard! He talks a good game, tells you exactly what you want to hear but then does nothing. All hot air, no action! No Thank You! Goldman or Grey or we are leaving this town and heading to burbs!
[...] a follow-up to our mayoral poll back in August, here are the results of a (certainly very unscientific) poll of the support for each of the 3 [...]